What if Red Sea attacks reroute tankers around the Cape and tighten crude supply?
Persistent Red Sea attacks reroute tankers around the Cape, adding 10–14 days of voyage time and tightening prompt crude and product supply as seen through 2024.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Persistent Red Sea attacks reroute tankers around the Cape, adding 10–14 days of voyage time and tightening prompt crude and product supply as seen through 2024. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.