What if sustained Red Sea tanker attacks lengthen European crude supply lines and lift diesel cracks?
Sustained Red Sea shipping attacks reroute tankers around Africa, lengthening European crude and product supply lines, lifting freight and widening diesel and jet-fuel cracks.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Sustained Red Sea shipping attacks reroute tankers around Africa, lengthening European crude and product supply lines, lifting freight and widening diesel and jet-fuel cracks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Jet fuel ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.