What if sustained Red Sea tanker attacks lengthen European crude supply lines and lift diesel cracks?
Sustained Red Sea shipping attacks reroute tankers around Africa, lengthening European crude and product supply lines, lifting freight and widening diesel and jet-fuel cracks.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Sustained Red Sea shipping attacks reroute tankers around Africa, lengthening European crude and product supply lines, lifting freight and widening diesel and jet-fuel cracks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Jet fuel ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.4% hist +1.03–+5.39% · other way -10.38% (n=12) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist +0.67–+1.96% · other way -1.15% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.86–-0.66% · other way +0.13% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.5% hist -0.6–+1.99% · other way +2.17% (n=12) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.78–+5.63% · other way +5.49% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.26–-0.62% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.35–+2.37% · other way +5.38% (n=12) |
| 8 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.06–+2.27% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.57–-0.23% · other way +0.95% (n=12) |
| 10 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.39–+2.76% · other way -2.14% (n=12) |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.12–+3.3% · other way +16.28% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.12–-0.2% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 13 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.2–+2.13% · other way -0.11% (n=12) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.85–+1.53% · other way -1.62% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 31 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.8% | 69% | 31 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -1.6% | 66% | 34 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.6% | 69% | 34 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +9bp | 64% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.5% · 5d +1.4% | 65% | 25 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +3.6% | 65% | 32 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.8% · 5d +0.0% | 63% | 31 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 31 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +8bp | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 25 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +6.0% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 31 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |