What if Climate-driven dengue & malaria spread into new regions?
Warming expands mosquito habitats, pushing dengue and malaria into temperate zones and straining health systems, adding a biosecurity dimension to physical-climate risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Warming expands mosquito habitats, pushing dengue and malaria into temperate zones and straining health systems, adding a biosecurity dimension to physical-climate risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biosecurity risk ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Consumer spending ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.62–+3.12% · other way +1.95% (n=10) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.34–-0.12% · other way +15.06% (n=11) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.4–+0.72% · other way +5.4% (n=10) |
| 5 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -5.13–+18.54% · other way -0.66% (n=11) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.49–+1.0% · other way +0.21% (n=11) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.16–+0.65% · other way +5.54% (n=10) |
| 8 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.2–+1.27% · other way +0.23% (n=11) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.39–+1.06% · other way +0.14% (n=11) |
| 10 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.64–+0.5% · other way +3.27% (n=11) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.37–+0.48% · other way +1.23% (n=11) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.56–+0.14% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.23–-0.04% · other way -0.72% (n=11) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -13.0–+8.96% · other way +20.34% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 30 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.1% | 74% | 23 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -13.5% · 5d -5.9% | 71% | 7 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -5.0% | 68% | 15 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 66% | 23 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +16.4% · 5d +2.9% | 63% | 24 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.0% | 63% | 30 | 0.23 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -4.8% | 62% | 18 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -3bp | 61% | 30 | 0.22 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 63% | 25 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 23 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -3.2% | 60% | 23 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 23 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 23 | 0.10 | · |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.0% | 51% | 23 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |