What if Bird-flu-driven dairy disruption spikes butter and milk prices?
A spreading avian-influenza spillover into dairy herds cuts milk output and spikes butter and cheese prices, lifting the dairy food-CPI component.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A spreading avian-influenza spillover into dairy herds cuts milk output and spikes butter and cheese prices, lifting the dairy food-CPI component. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biosecurity risk ▲ · Consumer spending ▼ · Food inflation ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.36–+1.68% · other way +2.06% (n=12) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -5.72–+11.81% · other way -3.13% (n=12) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.69–+1.08% · other way +2.16% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.36–+0.14% · other way +19.38% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.38–+0.46% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.63–+0.52% · other way +5.51% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -4.4% | 67% | 35 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 36 | 0.17 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -5.7% | 61% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 36 | 0.13 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -4.0% | 58% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d 0bp | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 52% | 36 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +11.4% · 5d +7.2% | 48% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -2.9% ↺ fades | 48% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |