What if Avian-flu containment normalizes US egg & poultry prices?
Effective biosecurity and vaccination contain avian influenza, allowing flocks to rebuild and egg and poultry prices to normalize, easing US food inflation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Effective biosecurity and vaccination contain avian influenza, allowing flocks to rebuild and egg and poultry prices to normalize, easing US food inflation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biosecurity risk ▼ · Consumer spending ▲ · Food inflation ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.3–+1.28% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.66–+3.85% · other way +14.38% (n=12) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.92–+9.25% · other way +4.41% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.25–+0.92% · other way -1.41% (n=12) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.23–+0.85% · other way +7.53% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.5–+0.23% · other way +3.26% (n=12) |
| 8 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.75–+0.8% · other way +2.71% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 39 | 0.30 | · |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.9% | 65% | 27 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 66% | 38 | 0.27 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -8.2% | 67% | 31 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -4.4% | 65% | 37 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -5.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d 0bp | 58% | 39 | 0.14 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -4.1% ↺ fades | 47% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +9.3% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 47% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 47% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 49% | 38 | 0.00 | · |