What if Abraham Accords widen to new Gulf and Arab states?
Additional Arab and Gulf states normalize ties with Israel, broadening the regional peace bloc and compressing the Middle East geopolitical premium further.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Additional Arab and Gulf states normalize ties with Israel, broadening the regional peace bloc and compressing the Middle East geopolitical premium further. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▼ · Global growth ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -6.6% hist -5.52–-1.28% · other way +0.9% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +2.7% hist +0.64–+1.74% · other way +0.68% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.9% hist +0.48–+1.62% · other way +0.99% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.5% hist +0.31–+1.1% · other way -1.32% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.18–+2.69% · other way +1.67% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -5.32–+12.48% · other way +10.53% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.3% hist -2.86–+7.43% · other way +7.69% (n=5) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -1.14–+3.65% · other way -0.13% (n=12) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.74–+2.98% · other way -11.55% (n=8) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.49–+7.14% · other way -5.76% (n=12) |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -1.86–+0.99% · other way +0.58% (n=12) |
| 13 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.24–+2.04% · other way +3.55% (n=12) |
| 14 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.03–+1.16% · other way -0.14% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.6% | 68% | 40 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.5% | 65% | 40 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.3% | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +3bp | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.7% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.6% | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.5% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |