What if Iranian strikes knock Abu Dhabi's crude exports offline?
Destroying Fujairah storage and halting ADNOC loadings severs the UAE's Hormuz-bypass route — Brent +6.6, refined products and energy equities bid, a genuine barrel-loss premium. Direct analogue: the 2019 Abqaiq attack on Saudi processing, which spiked Brent ~15% intraday before mean-reverting as spare capacity and SPR cushioned it. Forward angle: knocking out the bypass itself (not just Hormuz transit) removes the market's main contingency, so this premium should prove stickier than a typical Gulf scare.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sustained Iranian drone-and-missile salvo destroys Fujairah storage and halts ADNOC's Abu Dhabi loadings for weeks, severing UAE's Hormuz-bypass export route. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.