What if Advanced-packaging (CoWoS) bottleneck caps AI chip output?
Leading-edge 2.5D/3D packaging capacity can't keep pace with demand, throttling finished AI-accelerator supply and concentrating value in the packaging chokepoint.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Leading-edge 2.5D/3D packaging capacity can't keep pace with demand, throttling finished AI-accelerator supply and concentrating value in the packaging chokepoint. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.27–+1.2% · other way +2.11% (n=12) |
| 2 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.7–+1.89% · other way -1.97% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.13–+0.77% · other way +2.48% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.26–+0.5% · other way +1.52% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -12.5–+4.02% · other way +2.87% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -6.57–+7.39% · other way +22.4% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -7.29–+4.76% · other way +2.75% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.13–+0.34% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.27–+0.61% · other way -1.2% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.81–+1.1% · other way +2.1% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.67–+2.25% · other way +3.44% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.88–+2.69% · other way -0.71% (n=12) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.98–+0.4% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 11 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -11.3% · 5d -5.7% | 91% | 10 | 0.54 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.5% | 83% | 11 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -2.4% | 75% | 11 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 75% | 11 | 0.38 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.2% | 75% | 11 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -3.6% | 75% | 11 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -11bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 67% | 11 | 0.27 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.3% | 67% | 11 | 0.26 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -5.0% | 67% | 11 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.7% | 67% | 11 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.9% | 67% | 11 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.4% · 5d -4.9% | 62% | 11 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.9% | 58% | 11 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -4.5% | 58% | 11 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |