What if AI-capex bubble bursts?
AI monetization disappoints versus the hundreds of billions in datacenter spend, triggering capex cuts, GPU write-downs and a sharp de-rating of the AI complex.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. AI monetization disappoints versus the hundreds of billions in datacenter spend, triggering capex cuts, GPU write-downs and a sharp de-rating of the AI complex. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI breakthrough ▼ · AI capex ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.4% hist -2.58–-0.22% |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.37–-0.55% |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.19–-0.67% |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.79–-0.34% |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -3.91–+0.44% |
| 6 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.34–+0.13% |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.9–-0.32% |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.72–+0.18% |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.14–+0.07% |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -19.98–-1.38% |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -5.11–+10.52% |
| 12 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.56–+0.54% |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.49–-0.17% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 26 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -13.9% · 5d -7.0% | 95% | 19 | 0.62 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 25 | 0.27 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.8% | 67% | 24 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 24 | 0.25 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.8% | 67% | 25 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.4% | 65% | 24 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.8% | 60% | 24 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -1.8% | 58% | 25 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.7% | 60% | 25 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.4% | 60% | 24 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.8% | 60% | 25 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +10.6% · 5d +1.4% | 55% | 24 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.4% | 55% | 24 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 24 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |