What if an AI-investment bust collapses tech lending and data-center financing at banks?
An AI-investment bust collapses tech valuations and data-center/equipment lending, hitting bank exposures to the over-built AI supply chain and venture credit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An AI-investment bust collapses tech valuations and data-center/equipment lending, hitting bank exposures to the over-built AI supply chain and venture credit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -2.06–+0.74% · other way +4.13% (n=12) |
| 2 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.24–+0.2% · other way +1.64% (n=12) |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.55–+1.31% · other way +5.76% (n=12) |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.77–+0.36% · other way -1.7% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.93–+0.52% · other way +1.4% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -9.13–+1.2% · other way -17.76% (n=11) |
| 7 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.89–+0.74% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.03–+3.36% · other way +8.12% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.55–-0.25% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.81–+0.21% · other way -2.72% (n=12) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.13–+1.63% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -9.14–+2.13% · other way -0.19% (n=11) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.76–+1.18% · other way +2.62% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -5.8% | 73% | 37 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -3.0% | 69% | 40 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 40 | 0.28 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.8% · 5d -5.4% | 66% | 38 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.3% | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.0% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -3.3% | 59% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +1.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.8% · 5d +0.3% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.5% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.4% | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |