What if AI-datacenter load drives first US power demand growth in 20 years?
Hyperscaler AI buildout ends two decades of flat US electricity demand, with utility load-growth forecasts revised sharply higher; regulated utilities in XLU re-rate on rate-base expansion while gas and grid-copper demand inflect upward.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Hyperscaler AI buildout ends two decades of flat US electricity demand, with utility load-growth forecasts revised sharply higher; regulated utilities in XLU re-rate on rate-base expansion while gas and grid-copper demand inflect upward. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Copper ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -2.06–+5.22% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.29–+3.35% · other way -3.69% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -5.72–+10.43% · other way +4.67% (n=5) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.02–+0.95% · other way +2.01% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -5.69–+10.8% · other way -1.89% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.33–+2.55% · other way -2.25% (n=5) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.01–+0.48% · other way +0.84% (n=12) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.1–+1.46% · other way +9.05% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.3–+3.03% · other way +2.51% (n=8) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.09–+0.19% · other way +0.85% (n=12) |
| 12 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.12–+1.62% · other way -1.9% (n=12) |
| 13 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.39–+0.94% · other way -2.33% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist +0.04–+0.11% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 18 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +28.3% · 5d +7.0% | 73% | 7 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 69% | 16 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +10.3% · 5d -8.5% ↺ fades | 73% | 10 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 70% | 17 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 68% | 10 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 16 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 18 | 0.19 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 14 | 0.18 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +4.6% · 5d +1.1% | 60% | 16 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +10.6% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 16 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPD XPD | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +1.9% | 57% | 16 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 16 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.6% | 57% | 17 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 54% | 16 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |