What if government chip-fab subsidy clawbacks strain AI project finance during a downturn?
Clawbacks or delays of government chip-fab subsidies amid an AI downturn strain fab project finance, raising costs and stalling capacity additions.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Clawbacks or delays of government chip-fab subsidies amid an AI downturn strain fab project finance, raising costs and stalling capacity additions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.26–-0.29% · other way +3.76% (n=10) |
| 2 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.6–-0.14% · other way -0.76% (n=10) |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.29–+1.22% · other way +1.9% (n=7) |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.2–+0.91% · other way -2.93% (n=10) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.74–+0.42% · other way -0.51% (n=10) |
| 6 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.06–+0.39% · other way -5.0% (n=10) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.59–+0.14% · other way -1.57% (n=10) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.54–+0.02% · other way -0.33% (n=10) |
| 9 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.09–+0.63% · other way -1.42% (n=10) |
| 10 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.7–+0.66% · other way +3.96% (n=10) |
| 11 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.27–+0.04% · other way -2.81% (n=10) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.38–-0.02% · other way +0.61% (n=9) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.24–-0.03% · other way -1.51% (n=10) |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.54–+1.19% · other way +20.69% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -1.4% | 70% | 20 | 0.34 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.6% | 69% | 39 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.1% | 64% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -3.1% | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.2% · 5d +1.8% | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 39 | 0.12 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.0% | 57% | 37 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.1% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -3.2% | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.8% | 54% | 39 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | · |