What if the US bars exports of frontier AI model weights?
Capping frontier model-weight and training-compute exports above a FLOP threshold to tier-three nations directly dents Nvidia/Broadcom data-center TAM at the margin and pressures the AI-capex trade. Rhymes with the Jan-2025 AI Diffusion Rule that hit semis on TAM-cap fears before partial rollback. The targets are Gulf/SEA compute buyers routing to China; the forward angle is weight-export limits are hard to enforce on open models, so the rule may be more bark than bite - the ai_capex -0.4 root is the right primary driver.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. US bars export of frontier model weights and training compute above a FLOP threshold to tier-three nations. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.