What if Aluminum smelter power cutbacks tighten the metal on grid stress?
Grid emergencies and high power prices force aluminum and silicon smelters to curtail, cutting metal supply and lifting prices while exposing the power-intensity risk in heavy industry.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Grid emergencies and high power prices force aluminum and silicon smelters to curtail, cutting metal supply and lifting prices while exposing the power-intensity risk in heavy industry. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.