What if AMD seizes more than 20% of the accelerator market?
AMD past 20% accelerator share forcing Nvidia margins below 80% is a share-shift, not a TAM event — bullish AMD, mild negative for Nvidia pricing, broadly neutral for the complex. Rhymes with AMD's 2017-19 EPYC server-share gains that compressed Intel margins without shrinking the market. Skeptic's note: the cascade is thin (only TSMC) and correct — this is a relative-value pair (long AMD / short Nvidia margins), not a directional semi trade.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. AMD's MI450 ramp pushes data-center GPU share past 20%, forcing Nvidia's first gross-margin compression below 80%. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.