What if a cold Asian winter pulls LNG cargoes east just as Europe needs to restock?
A cold Asian winter pulls LNG cargoes east just as Europe restocks, spiking TTF and JKM together and exposing Europe's structural reliance on flexible LNG.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A cold Asian winter pulls LNG cargoes east just as Europe restocks, spiking TTF and JKM together and exposing Europe's structural reliance on flexible LNG. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · China growth ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -9.44–+2.19% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 2 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.18–+0.29% · other way +0.09% (n=12) |
| 3 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -3.49–+9.22% · other way -5.2% (n=12) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.58–+0.19% · other way +3.68% (n=12) |
| 5 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -0.81–+3.64% · other way -8.6% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 33 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -5.5% | 68% | 22 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 19 | 0.30 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.8% | 64% | 11 | 0.19 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.1% | 61% | 23 | 0.16 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 54% | 33 | 0.06 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 52% | 21 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +6bp | 49% | 31 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.6% | 45% | 22 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +5bp | 45% | 33 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |