What if Asia-Pacific de-escalation revives broad EM-Asia carry inflows?
A general easing of regional flashpoints (Taiwan, Korea, SCS) draws yield-seeking capital back into Asian EM bonds and FX; EM FX and Asian equities rally, the regional risk premium compresses.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A general easing of regional flashpoints (Taiwan, Korea, SCS) draws yield-seeking capital back into Asian EM bonds and FX; EM FX and Asian equities rally, the regional risk premium compresses. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · FX carry appetite ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -4.7% hist -3.54–-1.46% · other way +3.04% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +2.0% hist +0.57–+1.61% · other way +0.62% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.18–+1.53% · other way +1.18% (n=10) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.15–+1.12% · other way +0.02% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -7.6–+2.61% · other way +4.65% (n=11) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% hist -4.49–+0.96% · other way -2.22% (n=4) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.9% hist -5.75–+1.08% · other way -1.85% (n=9) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.3–+2.0% · other way +0.84% (n=10) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -7.29–+2.48% · other way -2.09% (n=5) |
| 11 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.59–+0.51% · other way -0.69% (n=9) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.92–+1.06% · other way +1.85% (n=6) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.05–+1.1% · other way -0.7% (n=10) |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.29–+0.28% · other way +3.06% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -0.5% | 72% | 30 | 0.43 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -9.2% | 74% | 20 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.2% | 69% | 39 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.4% | 68% | 30 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 31 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.0% | 65% | 39 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -4.2% | 65% | 32 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 30 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.9% | 64% | 37 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -6.7% | 65% | 22 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 29 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 30 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.6% | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |