What if Aging Asia exports disinflation, pinning regional real yields low?
Synchronized aging across Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China suppresses domestic demand and inflation, exporting disinflationary pressure and holding regional real yields structurally depressed.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Synchronized aging across Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China suppresses domestic demand and inflation, exporting disinflationary pressure and holding regional real yields structurally depressed. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Global growth ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Real yields ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.