What if Asian central banks intervene jointly in currencies?
Joint Japan-Korea-China FX intervention to stop competitive depreciation signals a currency-war truce: DXY softens, gold/BTC and EM/AUD firm as the dollar-up pressure releases. The model is the 1987 Louvre Accord, which halted the post-Plaza dollar slide via coordination. Forward angle: a defensive, anti-weakness intervention (selling dollars) drains reserves and can fail if US rate differentials stay wide, so fade dollar strength only as far as the rate gap allows.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Japan, Korea, and China coordinate FX intervention to halt competitive depreciation, signaling a managed truce in a budding currency war. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.5% hist -7.13–+5.07% · other way +23.24% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.5% hist -0.91–+2.13% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.4% hist -3.78–+4.08% · other way +9.75% (n=11) |
| 4 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.05–+1.26% · other way +23.11% (n=10) |
| 5 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.59–-0.17% · other way +1.04% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.18–+0.78% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 7 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.8% hist -9.33–+3.03% · other way -0.66% (n=12) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.41–+0.97% · other way -1.12% (n=12) |
| 9 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.5–+0.69% · other way -1.81% (n=12) |
| 10 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.59–+0.78% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -6.23–+4.13% · other way +1.3% (n=12) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -6.66–+5.95% · other way +2.79% (n=11) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.06–+0.52% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust history's SHORT on TRY: n=10, hit-rate 1.0, every analogue a clean on-channel lira plunge (-50/-27/-19%); the cascade's LONG over-reaches — Asian FX coordination does nothing to fix Turkey's idiosyncratic lira rot.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 30 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -8.7% · 5d -1.4% | 79% | 14 | 0.54 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.4% | 79% | 14 | 0.46 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -6.7% | 71% | 7 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 71% | 14 | 0.34 | · |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 67% | 6 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 14 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 64% | 14 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.4% | 65% | 28 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 28 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -3bp | 64% | 26 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -9bp · 5d -4bp | 63% | 28 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -8.4% · 5d -5.4% | 62% | 16 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -7.5% | 62% | 8 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -4.4% | 58% | 12 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Joint Asian FX intervention recurs in stress, but trilateral China coordination diplomatically hard. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.