What if Asian central banks intervene jointly in currencies?
Joint Japan-Korea-China FX intervention to stop competitive depreciation signals a currency-war truce: DXY softens, gold/BTC and EM/AUD firm as the dollar-up pressure releases. The model is the 1987 Louvre Accord, which halted the post-Plaza dollar slide via coordination. Forward angle: a defensive, anti-weakness intervention (selling dollars) drains reserves and can fail if US rate differentials stay wide, so fade dollar strength only as far as the rate gap allows.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Japan, Korea, and China coordinate FX intervention to halt competitive depreciation, signaling a managed truce in a budding currency war. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.