What if Asia and Europe wage a winter LNG bidding war?
A cold-winter Asia-Europe spot-LNG bidding war sends JKM and TTF soaring as the two regions compete for the same marginal cargo, weakening EUR on the import-bill hit. This is a direct replay of winter 2021-2022, when JKM-TTF arbitrage spikes pulled US cargoes east and drove record landed prices. Transmission: US Gulf liquefaction is the swing supplier and Qatar the low-cost incumbent; whoever holds uncommitted volumes captures the squeeze.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A brutal cold winter triggers an Asia-Europe spot-LNG bidding war, sending TTF and JKM soaring. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.