What if Asian teapot run cuts deepen the crude surplus?
Thin margins and import-quota tightening force Chinese independent refiners to slash crude runs, removing a large block of import demand; the run cuts swell the seaborne surplus and weigh on Brent.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Thin margins and import-quota tightening force Chinese independent refiners to slash crude runs, removing a large block of import demand; the run cuts swell the seaborne surplus and weigh on Brent. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.97–+0.22% · other way -5.9% (n=7) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.84–+0.19% · other way -6.93% (n=7) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.15–-0.01% · other way -8.42% (n=7) |
| 4 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.61–+0.12% · other way +1.85% (n=3) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.32–+0.41% · other way +3.8% (n=3) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.1% hist -3.21–+1.18% · other way +3.92% (n=3) |
| 8 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -1.06–+0.25% · other way +38.2% (n=11) |
| 9 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -0.96–-0.15% · other way +31.9% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.2% | 61% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -3.5% | 63% | 40 | 0.22 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.1% | 61% | 39 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -13.2% | 61% | 27 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -4.2% | 59% | 38 | 0.15 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +1bp · 5d +2bp | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 46% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 39% | 38 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +2bp | 41% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 41% | 39 | 0.00 | · |