What if Atlantic dust & shear suppress early-season hurricanes?
Heavy Saharan dust and high wind shear smother early Atlantic development, delivering a quiet start that eases reinsurance-pricing fears and supports risk appetite.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Heavy Saharan dust and high wind shear smother early Atlantic development, delivering a quiet start that eases reinsurance-pricing fears and supports risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▼ · Credit spreads ▼ · Financial conditions ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -4.69–+12.41% · other way -2.01% (n=11) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.03–+1.19% · other way +4.67% (n=5) |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.26–+3.18% · other way -2.25% (n=5) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.67–+3.88% · other way +2.64% (n=7) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.7–+0.08% · other way +11.03% (n=11) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.22–+0.23% · other way +0.56% (n=12) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.07–+0.22% · other way +1.22% (n=11) |
| 9 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.05–+0.46% · other way -1.59% (n=11) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.07–+0.14% · other way -0.24% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.11–+0.19% · other way +0.78% (n=11) |
| 12 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.5–+0.58% · other way +0.6% (n=11) |
| 13 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.33–+0.87% · other way +2.95% (n=11) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.16–+1.52% · other way -3.8% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 76% | 39 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.1% | 65% | 38 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.6% · 5d +2.9% | 62% | 35 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 63% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.1% | 64% | 39 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 38 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.2% | 56% | 38 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -5.3% | 57% | 35 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.0% | 56% | 38 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +3bp | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 46% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |