What if AUKUS submarine pact accelerates Indo-Pacific build?
AUKUS moves into full production on submarines and advanced capabilities, deepening allied deterrence and a long-cycle defense-industrial order book.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. AUKUS moves into full production on submarines and advanced capabilities, deepening allied deterrence and a long-cycle defense-industrial order book. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +2.5% hist -1.19–+8.15% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist -0.64–+2.99% · other way -3.24% (n=12) |
| 3 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.49–+2.57% · other way -1.37% (n=12) |
| 4 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -1.58–+1.11% · other way -4.07% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.61–-0.13% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.39–-0.14% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.43–+0.45% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.12–+0.65% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.83–+5.77% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.31–+0.08% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.71–+0.14% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.24–+2.28% · other way +5.17% (n=12) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.82–+1.29% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 14 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.31–+4.16% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 38 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 66% | 19 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.0% | 71% | 21 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.2% · 5d +3.0% | 66% | 29 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 66% | 19 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -3.0% | 60% | 31 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.7% | 58% | 34 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 60% | 22 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -4.4% | 55% | 22 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 55% | 24 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.8% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 23 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -3.5% | 53% | 26 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +1.2% | 52% | 31 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.7% | 53% | 27 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +5bp | 52% | 34 | 0.04 | · |