What if Australia's superannuation cushions its aging fiscal burden?
Australia's mandatory superannuation system pre-funds much of its retirement liability, blunting the fiscal hit from aging and supporting its sovereign credit relative to PAYG economies.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Australia's mandatory superannuation system pre-funds much of its retirement liability, blunting the fiscal hit from aging and supporting its sovereign credit relative to PAYG economies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Global growth ▲ · Real yields ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.