What if RBA pivots to cuts as China-demand drag cools Australian prices?
Softer Chinese demand and cooling inflation let the RBA ease, supporting Australian housing and risk; the Aussie tracks the China-reflation pulse in a commodity-linked recovery.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Softer Chinese demand and cooling inflation let the RBA ease, supporting Australian housing and risk; the Aussie tracks the China-reflation pulse in a commodity-linked recovery. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China stimulus ▲ · Fed policy path ▼ · Industrial demand ▲ · Mortgage rates ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -9.5–+15.8% · other way +1.69% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -9.6–+12.63% · other way -7.65% (n=11) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.14–+1.1% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.13–+1.02% · other way +0.28% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.59–+5.84% · other way -5.96% (n=11) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.83–+1.88% · other way +0.25% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.78–+1.61% · other way -3.83% (n=12) |
| 9 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.5–+1.25% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.38–+0.39% · other way -2.97% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.38–+0.95% · other way -1.6% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -16.55–+19.65% · other way +3.88% (n=11) |
| 13 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.7–+0.63% · other way -0.27% (n=12) |
| 14 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.05–+0.27% · other way -0.89% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 16 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 89% | 9 | 0.58 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.3% | 79% | 13 | 0.53 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -1.2% | 79% | 9 | 0.44 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.8% | 68% | 9 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -4.8% | 69% | 15 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +20.9% · 5d +7.5% | 64% | 5 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +2bp | 62% | 16 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +4bp | 62% | 16 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 13 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 14 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +12.9% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 8 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +15.8% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 14 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 14 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.4% | 57% | 13 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |