What if floods wreck Australia's wheat harvest?
La Nina floods downgrade Australian wheat to feed quality — long premium milling-wheat spreads and APW basis into Asia, with feed wheat pressuring corn, not a broad risk event. Rhymes with the 2010-11 and 2022 east-coast floods that slashed Australia's high-protein milling grade and forced Asian millers to source elsewhere. Transmission is Australia-to-Indonesia/Vietnam/Japan milling trade; WHEAT-direct mapping is apt and the cascade here is appropriately contained.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Back-to-back La Nina floods downgrade and destroy Australian wheat, removing premium milling supply from Asian buyers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Wheat ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.