What if steep US tariffs on autos gut Japan's largest export sector?
Steep US tariffs on autos and auto parts gut Japan's largest export sector, slashing exporter earnings and TOPIX, and lifting credit costs across the deep auto supply chain that regional banks bankroll.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Steep US tariffs on autos and auto parts gut Japan's largest export sector, slashing exporter earnings and TOPIX, and lifting credit costs across the deep auto supply chain that regional banks bankroll. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.