What if Japan, Korea or China hits a demographic tipping point?
A demographic-collapse milestone is a slow secular shock, so the modeled move is muted (S&P -0.2%) with a small breakeven bump from labor scarcity and a soft growth read — the real expression is structurally lower terminal rates and JGB/pension dynamics. Rhymes with Japan's post-1990 aging path: chronically weak growth, low yields and pension/housing strain. Transmission: aging Japan/Korea/China are large global creditors, so a tipping point pressures their savings-glut export of capital — over time a force on global term premia, not a single-day equity event.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A demographic-collapse milestone (Japan/Korea/China) hits growth, pensions and housing. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Labor shortage ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.