What if US-EU-Japan tech alliance counters China scale?
A trilateral pact pools R&D, standards and supply chains in chips and AI, strengthening the allied tech bloc and stabilizing critical-supply expectations.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A trilateral pact pools R&D, standards and supply chains in chips and AI, strengthening the allied tech bloc and stabilizing critical-supply expectations. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.85–+2.49% · other way +5.21% (n=12) |
| 2 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.29–-0.02% · other way -8.3% (n=7) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.45–-0.01% · other way -2.33% (n=12) |
| 4 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.65–+2.01% · other way -0.58% (n=7) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -11.22–+2.24% · other way +24.73% (n=6) |
| 6 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.7–+0.81% · other way +5.9% (n=12) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.23–+0.23% · other way +2.75% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.44–+0.06% · other way +0.29% (n=10) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.14–-0.05% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.95–+1.14% · other way +11.62% (n=7) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.78–+7.28% · other way +6.61% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.6% · 5d -8.8% | 72% | 33 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.0% | 63% | 37 | 0.22 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 38 | 0.18 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 60% | 38 | 0.17 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -4.6% | 60% | 34 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +6.8% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.6% | 57% | 38 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.5% | 57% | 37 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -3.3% | 55% | 38 | 0.08 | · |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 55% | 37 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 53% | 38 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 51% | 37 | 0.01 | · |