What if Battery-metal demand shock from a China stimulus surprise?
A large China consumption-and-infrastructure stimulus revives EV and grid demand, draining battery-metal surpluses and reigniting lithium, nickel and copper prices.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A large China consumption-and-infrastructure stimulus revives EV and grid demand, draining battery-metal surpluses and reigniting lithium, nickel and copper prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China stimulus ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.97–+1.76% · other way +0.84% (n=5) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.16–+1.78% · other way -5.9% (n=4) |
| 3 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.03–+0.46% · other way -0.87% (n=5) |
| 4 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.75–+0.25% · other way -4.71% (n=5) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.17–+1.4% · other way -3.7% (n=5) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.14–+0.31% · other way -0.32% (n=6) |
| 8 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.56–-0.01% · other way +1.05% (n=12) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -7.74–+12.46% · other way +3.72% (n=5) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.97–+5.54% · other way -7.53% (n=4) |
| 11 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.64–+0.51% · other way -2.77% (n=5) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -9.11–+1.35% · other way +8.21% (n=6) |
| 13 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.32–+1.95% · other way -6.23% (n=5) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.1–+5.1% · other way -0.99% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 16 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -7.5% · 5d -3.0% | 88% | 15 | 0.56 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +7.0% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 79% | 13 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.8% | 76% | 9 | 0.48 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -3.3% | 72% | 13 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 72% | 13 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 13 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -4.1% | 66% | 13 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +0.2% | 66% | 13 | 0.28 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +5.6% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 65% | 7 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +12.6% · 5d -3.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 13 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 13 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +6.4% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 13 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -11.4% | 59% | 7 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XPT XPT | LONG | +4.3% · 5d +3.5% | 55% | 13 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |