What if Bay of Bengal supercyclone devastates Bangladesh delta?
A high-end tropical cyclone makes landfall on the densely populated Bangladesh-India delta, causing mass displacement, crop loss and a humanitarian crisis with regional spillovers.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A high-end tropical cyclone makes landfall on the densely populated Bangladesh-India delta, causing mass displacement, crop loss and a humanitarian crisis with regional spillovers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.