What if Behind-the-meter on-site power bypass de-rates regulated grid utilities?
Hyperscalers self-supplying with on-site gas and fuel cells bypass the regulated grid, eroding utility load-growth assumptions and de-rating names that priced in datacenter demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Hyperscalers self-supplying with on-site gas and fuel cells bypass the regulated grid, eroding utility load-growth assumptions and de-rating names that priced in datacenter demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -6.61–+10.01% · other way -1.77% (n=8) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.99–+1.58% · other way +7.89% (n=11) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.18–+3.26% · other way +16.85% (n=11) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.72–+1.96% · other way +8.38% (n=8) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.18–+0.32% · other way +1.89% (n=11) |
| 7 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.54–+0.4% · other way -1.09% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.6–+0.18% · other way +9.81% (n=8) |
| 9 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.38–+0.71% · other way -0.41% (n=11) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.17–+0.23% · other way +2.37% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 28 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.4% | 71% | 13 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.7% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 68% | 22 | 0.28 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +10.6% · 5d -6.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 11 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 65% | 23 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 21 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 58% | 21 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 21 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 53% | 19 | 0.04 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +1.3% | 51% | 21 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.3% | 51% | 21 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -3.0% | 46% | 11 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.3% | 47% | 21 | 0.00 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 44% | 28 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +0bp | 42% | 28 | 0.00 | · |