What if expanded biofuel mandates divert corn and vegetable oils from food to fuel?
Expanded biofuel blending mandates divert corn, soy and vegetable oils from food to fuel, tightening food balances and raising prices, a food-versus-fuel policy-driven inflation channel.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Expanded biofuel blending mandates divert corn, soy and vegetable oils from food to fuel, tightening food balances and raising prices, a food-versus-fuel policy-driven inflation channel. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Corn ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.