What if BoE cuts into sticky UK services inflation, weakening sterling?
The Bank of England eases despite resilient services prices, sinking sterling and steepening the gilt curve; the policy-mistake debate lifts UK breakevens and pressures the long end.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The Bank of England eases despite resilient services prices, sinking sterling and steepening the gilt curve; the policy-mistake debate lifts UK breakevens and pressures the long end. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Yield-curve slope ▲ · Fed policy path ▼ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.23–+0.6% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 2 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.38–+0.08% · other way -0.31% (n=11) |
| 3 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▼ -1bp model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 14 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -1.7% | 100% | 7 | 0.82 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.4% | 73% | 7 | 0.34 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -4.8% | 69% | 6 | 0.25 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +16.5% | 60% | 7 | 0.15 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 7 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +2bp | 53% | 14 | 0.06 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.4% | 50% | 14 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |