What if California snowpack rebounds: reservoirs refill, drought eases?
A big Sierra snow year refills reservoirs and recharges aquifers, easing Western US water rationing and supporting agricultural output and regional food-price relief.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A big Sierra snow year refills reservoirs and recharges aquifers, easing Western US water rationing and supporting agricultural output and regional food-price relief. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▼ · Food inflation ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.83–+0.86% · other way -1.85% (n=6) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.24–+3.67% · other way -1.73% (n=6) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.7–+5.11% · other way -3.47% (n=6) |
| 4 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.33–+2.07% · other way -1.49% (n=6) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.68–+8.95% · other way +16.59% (n=6) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.57–+8.39% · other way -0.51% (n=6) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.09–+0.64% · other way +0.1% (n=7) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.05–+0.18% · other way -0.84% (n=6) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -8.11–+10.77% · other way +3.14% (n=6) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -2.75–+1.62% · other way -0.16% (n=6) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.01–+0.22% · other way +0.62% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 22 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | LONG | +8.3% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 70% | 11 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 66% | 19 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -4.0% | 67% | 21 | 0.25 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 65% | 21 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 58% | 22 | 0.14 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +11.3% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 11 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 19 | 0.09 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.2% · 5d -9.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 10 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 39% | 19 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +0.2% | 45% | 19 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +8.8% · 5d -3.8% ↺ fades | 50% | 19 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.3% | 43% | 19 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -5.6% | 50% | 19 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 48% | 19 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |