What if a capacity-auction spike warns of a generation shortfall?
A regional capacity-auction price spike signals a looming generation shortfall and lifts forward power and IPP/gas-generator economics; the EUR/USD-down leg fits an EU read but the crypto-liquidity legs are spurious. Direct rhyme is the 2024 PJM capacity auction's ~9x clearing-price jump that re-rated independent power producers. Transmission: higher wholesale costs flow to ratepayers and re-rate firm-capacity owners. Forward angle: data-center demand makes capacity scarcity structural, favoring gas peakers and nuclear uprates.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A regional capacity-auction price spike multiplies wholesale costs, signaling a looming generation shortfall. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.