What if capacity-market reform strands legacy fossil generators reliant on capacity payments?
Reform of electricity capacity markets to favour clean firm power strands legacy fossil-capacity revenue, impairing merchant-generator credit reliant on capacity payments.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Reform of electricity capacity markets to favour clean firm power strands legacy fossil-capacity revenue, impairing merchant-generator credit reliant on capacity payments. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.16–+0.36% · other way -1.57% (n=8) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.47–+2.35% · other way -0.44% (n=8) |
| 3 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–+0.03% · other way -0.31% (n=8) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.62–+0.11% · other way +2.38% (n=8) |
| 5 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.42–+0.33% · other way +0.45% (n=8) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.2–+2.12% · other way +22.57% (n=8) |
| 7 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.44–+0.42% · other way +0.74% (n=9) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.66–+4.5% · other way -1.47% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.6% | 70% | 40 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.1% | 64% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d 0bp | 67% | 40 | 0.26 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.1% | 63% | 39 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 39 | 0.23 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.1% · 5d +1.1% | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.7% | 56% | 39 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -4.3% ↺ fades | 51% | 39 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 43% | 38 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 31% | 24 | 0.00 | · |