What if Carbon capture turns profitable?
Direct-air-capture costs fall below ~$100/ton and a carbon-removal market scales, making decarbonization an investable cash-flow business.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Direct-air-capture costs fall below ~$100/ton and a carbon-removal market scales, making decarbonization an investable cash-flow business. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.76–-0.1% · other way -4.01% (n=6) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.33–+0.52% · other way -5.09% (n=6) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.3–+0.53% · other way +0.26% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.0–+0.68% · other way -5.78% (n=6) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.31–+2.45% · other way +7.77% (n=6) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.56–-0.08% · other way -0.73% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.98–+5.01% · other way +4.39% (n=6) |
| 8 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.83–+1.54% · other way +0.41% (n=6) |
| 9 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.33–+4.32% · other way -1.16% (n=6) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.14–+0.27% · other way -0.2% (n=7) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.77–+2.63% · other way -6.91% (n=6) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.71–+0.84% · other way -0.75% (n=6) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.02–+0.22% · other way +0.31% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 13 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -4.3% | 77% | 12 | 0.40 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +16.6% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 69% | 7 | 0.33 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +7bp · 5d 0bp ↺ fades | 68% | 13 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +4.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 10 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +4.8% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 10 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -4.3% | 64% | 10 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.0% | 64% | 13 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -11.4% | 64% | 6 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 10 | 0.16 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.5% | 59% | 10 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +14.9% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 10 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 13 | 0.06 | · |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 50% | 10 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 27% | 10 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |