What if a Cat-5 Florida landfall triggers the largest cat-bond principal losses since Ian?
A single Cat-5 Florida landfall triggers multiple parametric and indemnity cat-bond attachment points, inflicting the largest ILS investor principal losses since Hurricane Ian.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A single Cat-5 Florida landfall triggers multiple parametric and indemnity cat-bond attachment points, inflicting the largest ILS investor principal losses since Hurricane Ian. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.17–+1.66% · other way -9.24% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.38–+0.41% · other way +30.07% (n=12) |
| 3 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.45–+2.31% · other way -3.04% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.05–+0.58% · other way -2.27% (n=10) |
| 5 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.02–+1.01% · other way -1.11% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.47–+0.06% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.5–+0.25% · other way +3.01% (n=10) |
| 9 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.39–-0.18% · other way -0.41% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.83–+1.03% · other way +8.0% (n=10) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.53–+0.47% · other way +1.08% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.75–+0.05% · other way +0.96% (n=12) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.85–+0.14% · other way +0.1% (n=12) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.39–+0.19% · other way +0.04% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -1.8% | 65% | 36 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -3.3% | 61% | 36 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.5% | 61% | 20 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.0% | 60% | 38 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.4% | 61% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 36 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -6.1% | 60% | 15 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.2% | 59% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +3.5% | 57% | 14 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 37 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.3% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 37 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |