What if CBAM-affected exporters retaliate and spark a green trade war?
Affected exporters retaliate against EU CBAM with countermeasures and WTO disputes, escalating a green-trade war that fragments carbon-intensive goods markets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Affected exporters retaliate against EU CBAM with countermeasures and WTO disputes, escalating a green-trade war that fragments carbon-intensive goods markets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.5% hist +0.61–+6.08% · other way -0.14% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.2% hist -2.65–-1.3% · other way -0.16% (n=11) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.1% hist -2.03–-1.07% · other way +3.27% (n=11) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.9% hist -1.62–-0.57% · other way -0.02% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -1.6–-0.54% · other way +6.07% (n=11) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -3.44–+0.12% · other way +2.87% (n=11) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.5–-0.21% · other way +0.39% (n=11) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.56–+0.47% · other way +2.35% (n=11) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -3.41–+0.33% · other way +0.15% (n=11) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.66–+0.31% · other way +3.52% (n=11) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.64–+0.06% · other way -1.77% (n=11) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.1–+0.03% · other way +30.92% (n=11) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.41–+1.02% · other way -3.28% (n=10) |
| 14 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.38–-0.22% · other way -4.15% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -0.9% | 72% | 35 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 70% | 34 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 35 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.3% | 64% | 37 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -1.7% | 64% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.2% | 64% | 30 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.1% | 62% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -8.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 17 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 35 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +6bp | 58% | 39 | 0.14 | · |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.0% | 57% | 34 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |