What if Central banks slow gold buying as dollar credibility is restored?
Renewed confidence in US policy and disinflation curbs official gold demand and revives Treasury appetite, firming the dollar and real yields while bullion's structural bid fades.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Renewed confidence in US policy and disinflation curbs official gold demand and revives Treasury appetite, firming the dollar and real yields while bullion's structural bid fades. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Gold ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.3% hist -1.87–-0.55% · other way +1.78% (n=10) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -6.67–+9.79% · other way +13.78% (n=10) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.11–+5.93% · other way +0.31% (n=10) |
| 4 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.39–+0.72% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 5 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.56–-0.07% · other way +0.03% (n=10) |
| 6 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -5.03–+8.69% · other way +10.14% (n=10) |
| 7 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.55–-0.21% · other way -0.25% (n=10) |
| 8 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.67–-0.21% · other way +0.02% (n=10) |
| 9 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.48–-0.15% · other way +0.6% (n=10) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.31–+5.79% · other way -4.46% (n=10) |
| 11 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.06–+0.94% · other way +0.23% (n=10) |
| 12 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.63–-0.05% · other way -0.13% (n=10) |
| 13 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.54–-0.06% · other way -0.42% (n=10) |
| 14 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.6–+0.02% · other way -0.66% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +2bp | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.6% | 65% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 40 | 0.22 | · |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -6.0% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +6.3% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 32 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |