What if Cheap gas crushes coal burn, deepens US coal-to-gas switch?
A sub-$2.50 Henry Hub makes gas the cheapest marginal fuel across most US grids, accelerating coal-to-gas switching, lifting gas burn and structurally undermining domestic thermal-coal demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A sub-$2.50 Henry Hub makes gas the cheapest marginal fuel across most US grids, accelerating coal-to-gas switching, lifting gas burn and structurally undermining domestic thermal-coal demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.49–+0.38% · other way -3.3% (n=5) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.5–+0.12% · other way -2.76% (n=5) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.44–-0.05% · other way +1.08% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.94–+6.09% · other way -5.62% (n=5) |
| 5 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.05–+0.22% · other way -0.26% (n=5) |
| 6 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.8–+0.9% · other way -3.73% (n=5) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.03–+0.49% · other way -1.08% (n=6) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.38–+8.65% · other way +14.03% (n=5) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.68–+3.48% · other way -0.58% (n=5) |
| 11 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.13–+7.69% · other way -5.04% (n=5) |
| 12 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.61–+12.93% · other way +6.88% (n=5) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.98–+6.42% · other way +2.36% (n=5) |
| 14 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.75–+0.26% · other way +0.38% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 22 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +7.3% · 5d +1.5% | 79% | 17 | 0.54 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +6.8% · 5d +2.3% | 66% | 19 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.3% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 71% | 12 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +11.9% · 5d +0.6% | 64% | 18 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 65% | 21 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -4.0% | 65% | 21 | 0.22 | · |
| NG NG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 19 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.1% · 5d -8.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.0% | 55% | 19 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 19 | 0.10 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 22 | 0.08 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 51% | 22 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +8.4% · 5d -4.1% ↺ fades | 51% | 19 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 48% | 17 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |