What if Cheap gas revives Western ammonia output and cuts fertilizer?
Abundant cheap natural gas restarts idled US and European ammonia capacity, lifting nitrogen supply and pulling urea/UAN prices sharply lower.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Abundant cheap natural gas restarts idled US and European ammonia capacity, lifting nitrogen supply and pulling urea/UAN prices sharply lower. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▼ · Fertilizer cost ▼ · Food inflation ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.32–+1.33% · other way +1.98% (n=6) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.45–+14.23% · other way -1.17% (n=10) |
| 3 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.27–+0.02% · other way +3.9% (n=10) |
| 4 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.48–+0.63% · other way +2.82% (n=10) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.46–+0.26% · other way +0.17% (n=11) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +5bp | 70% | 40 | 0.32 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 71% | 38 | 0.30 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +12.8% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.0% | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -7.7% | 60% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.5% | 45% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.1% | 48% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.3% | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 50% | 38 | 0.00 | · |