What if weak Chinese demand caps and then drags global crude oil prices?
Weak Chinese oil demand (the world's largest importer) caps and then drags global crude prices as refining runs and diesel/industrial consumption fall in the downturn.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Weak Chinese oil demand (the world's largest importer) caps and then drags global crude prices as refining runs and diesel/industrial consumption fall in the downturn. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.82–-0.31% · other way -1.24% (n=9) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.6–+0.2% · other way -2.0% (n=9) |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.55–-0.02% · other way -2.51% (n=5) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.41–+1.27% · other way +6.04% (n=5) |
| 5 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.91–+1.25% · other way -6.12% (n=5) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.46–+0.48% · other way -7.49% (n=9) |
| 8 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.4–+-0.0% · other way -1.68% (n=7) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.73–+1.11% · other way +16.2% (n=9) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.68–+1.98% · other way +3.12% (n=5) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.22–+0.26% · other way +0.04% (n=10) |
| 12 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.39–+0.04% · other way -5.11% (n=9) |
| 13 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.89–+0.85% · other way -5.24% (n=9) |
| 14 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.24–-0.01% · other way -0.67% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.2% | 64% | 40 | 0.25 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.7% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -4.3% | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -13.6% | 62% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +1.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.3% | 57% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -6.6% | 59% | 26 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.3% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |