What if a Chinese harvest shortfall drives a surge in global grain and soybean imports?
A Chinese harvest shortfall drives a surge in grain and soybean imports, tightening global supply and lifting world prices, a demand-side food-inflation shock from the largest importer.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A Chinese harvest shortfall drives a surge in grain and soybean imports, tightening global supply and lifting world prices, a demand-side food-inflation shock from the largest importer. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Corn ▲ · Wheat ▲ · China growth ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.64–+0.94% · other way +0.75% (n=9) |
| 2 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.14–+0.7% · other way -5.55% (n=9) |
| 3 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.05–+0.18% · other way +0.23% (n=9) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.19–+0.88% · other way +8.8% (n=10) |
| 5 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.29–+0.83% · other way +3.43% (n=7) |
| 6 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.55–+1.3% · other way -3.64% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.6% | 65% | 40 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +3bp | 65% | 40 | 0.25 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.9% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.7% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -4.0% | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.6% | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 45% | 40 | 0.00 | · |