What if a China hard landing collapses oil demand and sends Brent toward $50?
A China property-led hard landing collapses Chinese oil-demand growth, pushing Brent toward $50 in the demand-shock path that NGFS and IEA flag for the largest crude importer.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A China property-led hard landing collapses Chinese oil-demand growth, pushing Brent toward $50 in the demand-shock path that NGFS and IEA flag for the largest crude importer. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.97–-0.39% · other way -1.24% (n=9) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.67–+0.16% · other way -2.0% (n=9) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.5–+1.21% · other way +6.04% (n=5) |
| 4 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.6–-0.05% · other way -2.51% (n=5) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.94–+1.2% · other way -6.12% (n=5) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.78–+1.92% · other way +3.12% (n=5) |
| 8 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.48–-0.05% · other way -1.68% (n=7) |
| 9 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.52–+0.44% · other way -7.49% (n=9) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.78–+1.02% · other way +16.2% (n=9) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–+0.21% · other way +0.04% (n=10) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.3–-0.05% · other way -0.67% (n=9) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.61–+1.13% · other way -0.77% (n=10) |
| 14 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.41–+0.02% · other way -5.11% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.2% | 64% | 40 | 0.25 | · |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.7% | 62% | 19 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.7% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -4.3% | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -13.6% | 62% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +1.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.3% | 57% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -6.6% | 59% | 26 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.5% | 58% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |