What if China module flood drives global solar toward $0.05/W?
Relentless Chinese manufacturing overcapacity pushes solar-module prices toward $0.05/W, collapsing the levelized cost of solar worldwide and structurally undercutting fossil-fired power economics.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Relentless Chinese manufacturing overcapacity pushes solar-module prices toward $0.05/W, collapsing the levelized cost of solar worldwide and structurally undercutting fossil-fired power economics. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · China growth ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -0.97–-0.5% · other way -3.99% (n=7) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.61–-0.07% · other way -5.69% (n=7) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.8–-0.43% · other way -0.59% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.21–-0.14% · other way -6.37% (n=7) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.79–+3.78% · other way -3.95% (n=7) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.1–+0.63% · other way +0.39% (n=7) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.49–+5.81% · other way +22.52% (n=7) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.02–+2.74% · other way -3.86% (n=7) |
| 10 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -3.17–+9.96% · other way +11.97% (n=7) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.01–+0.63% · other way +0.51% (n=7) |
| 12 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.03–+0.14% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 13 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.79–+7.46% · other way +4.95% (n=7) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.96–+1.14% · other way +5.19% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +5.9% · 5d +0.7% | 74% | 24 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.1% | 65% | 26 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -2.6% | 67% | 28 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.0% | 61% | 26 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 26 | 0.22 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 63% | 15 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +2.7% · 5d +1.0% | 60% | 26 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 62% | 28 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +8.9% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 25 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.3% | 58% | 24 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 26 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +2bp | 53% | 29 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -5.7% | 53% | 26 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 53% | 29 | 0.05 | · |