What if China property-led metals slump drags the transition chain?
A deeper China property and growth slump cuts copper, nickel and rare-earth demand, dragging the energy-transition metals complex lower despite secular electrification.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A deeper China property and growth slump cuts copper, nickel and rare-earth demand, dragging the energy-transition metals complex lower despite secular electrification. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.8–+0.9% · other way -12.64% (n=5) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.37–+0.39% · other way -7.85% (n=5) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -7.12–+1.67% |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.32–+4.97% · other way +5.19% (n=5) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.27–+1.77% |
| 7 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.07–+0.19% |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.22–-0.1% · other way -0.47% (n=6) |
| 9 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.25–+0.29% |
| 10 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.58–+0.06% · other way -5.09% (n=4) |
| 11 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.88–+0.64% · other way -9.66% (n=5) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.61–+1.33% · other way +0.44% (n=6) |
| 13 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.01–+0.21% · other way -9.18% (n=5) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.28–+0.78% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.5% | 65% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.1% | 65% | 39 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -2.9% | 65% | 40 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -14.1% | 67% | 21 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.8% | 63% | 39 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.3% | 62% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 39 | 0.22 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.5% | 61% | 33 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 59% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.4% | 59% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.2% | 60% | 32 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -7.5% | 59% | 24 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.8% | 58% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |