What if China rare-earth quota hike floods the magnet-metal market?
Beijing raises domestic mining and separation quotas to support its industry, flooding the market with neodymium and praseodymium and crushing rare-earth oxide prices.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Beijing raises domestic mining and separation quotas to support its industry, flooding the market with neodymium and praseodymium and crushing rare-earth oxide prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.08–+0.76% · other way -9.74% (n=5) |
| 2 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.89–+0.32% · other way -10.05% (n=5) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.8–+0.85% · other way -12.08% (n=5) |
| 4 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.13–+0.41% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
| 5 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.85–+0.45% · other way -11.47% (n=5) |
| 6 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -4.32–+0.59% · other way -4.41% (n=5) |
| 7 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -3.63–+1.0% · other way +49.5% (n=9) |
| 8 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -4.23–+1.0% · other way +27.5% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 34 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -1.1% | 73% | 23 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -3.1% | 71% | 23 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -1.2% | 69% | 23 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.8% | 69% | 23 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -3.5% | 67% | 23 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 23 | 0.19 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 59% | 33 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -3.2% | 53% | 25 | 0.05 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.6% | 52% | 33 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 52% | 33 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 51% | 33 | 0.01 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 42% | 17 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 48% | 23 | 0.00 | · |