What if China reactor build-out tightens the global uranium balance?
China's accelerated reactor construction program locks up long-term uranium and enrichment supply, crowding out Western utilities and tightening the world fuel market.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. China's accelerated reactor construction program locks up long-term uranium and enrichment supply, crowding out Western utilities and tightening the world fuel market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.66–-0.31% · other way -4.71% (n=5) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.38–+0.07% · other way -3.7% (n=5) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.55–-0.28% · other way +1.05% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.03–-0.03% · other way -2.77% (n=5) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.82–+3.26% · other way +0.84% (n=5) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.94–+3.52% · other way -5.9% (n=4) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.02–+0.5% · other way -0.32% (n=6) |
| 8 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.66–+1.92% · other way -0.87% (n=5) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.58–+5.68% · other way +3.72% (n=5) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.11–+2.59% · other way -7.53% (n=4) |
| 12 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -3.24–+9.84% · other way +3.77% (n=5) |
| 13 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.92–+0.21% · other way -0.43% (n=12) |
| 14 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.83–+7.4% · other way +3.97% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +5.9% · 5d +0.7% | 74% | 24 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.1% | 65% | 26 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -2.6% | 67% | 28 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 26 | 0.22 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +2.7% · 5d +1.0% | 60% | 26 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 63% | 15 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 62% | 28 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +8.9% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 25 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.3% | 58% | 24 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 26 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +2bp | 53% | 29 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 53% | 29 | 0.05 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.3% · 5d -10.4% ↺ fades | 53% | 15 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 52% | 26 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |